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That could create a
crisis of confidence that fuels calls for rethinking the
existing currency regime. Dollar bears have been worried about
the ability of the United States to fund continuing deficits and
the detrimental effect of a weak dollar. However, robust equity
markets and steady appetite for U.S. Treasuries suggest
investors still have faith in U.S. assets.
But there is a tipping point. Analysts point to a move to $1.60
by the euro, the dollar’s record against the single currency, as
a level that would be the source of alarm. The dollar has
declined 15 percent against a basket of six major currencies
from the highs set in March and is down more than 37 percent
from a peak in 2001.
This week, the greenback was steady with the euro hovering below
$1.50, off about 6 percent from the euro’s record high at
$1.6040 set in July 2008.“If we breach $1.60. I think that’s too
far, too fast and could cause concern about a dollar demise,”
said Michael Woolfolk, BNY Mellon’s senior currency strategist
in New York.
Low U.S. rates have contributed to the dollar’s weakness in
recent months as investors use it as a funding currency in carry
trades, in which traders borrow in low-yielding currencies and
invest in assets with greater returns. The Federal Reserve this
week kept interest rates at near zero, and expects to maintain
that for “an extended period.”
The $1.60 level is likely the maximum exchange rate in which
central banks will tolerate weakness in the dollar. Beyond that,
analysts expect some form of intervention, verbal or otherwise,
to support the U.S. currency. Already, some central banks, such
as Australia and Norway, are noting unwanted strength in their
currencies as they have started to raise rates.
The Norwegian central bank noted that it would likely slow the
pace of tightening if its crown currency gains more rapidly than
it would like.“The market appears to be taking the appropriate
view that we are sucking the last juice out of the short dollar
trade,” said Alan Ruskin, global head of currency strategy at
RBS in Stamford, Connecticut.
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